Stock Exchange: Knowing When to Walk Away

You’ve got to know when to hold ’emKnow when to fold ’emKnow when to walk awayAnd know when to runYou never count your moneyWhen you’re sittin’ at the tableThere’ll be time enough for countin’When the dealin’s done The Gambler, popularized by Kenny Rogers, 1978 The Stock Exchange is all about trading. Each week we do […]

Read More

When Good Models Go Bad

What do you do when your trading system goes wrong? Two possibilities: Has the world changed? Do you still have an edge? Or is this a “blip” that is within the expected error tolerance? If you are an experienced researcher, you can employ various statistical tests, determining whether or not the actual results are plausible. […]

Read More

The Difference between Risk and Fear

Understanding risk is the most important part of investing. Distinguishing risk from fear is a crucial to this knowledge. In my regular commentary I emphasize the difference in time frames between traders and investors. The trader is making a short-term forecast, booking gains and losses on an hourly, daily, or weekly basis. The trader is […]

Read More