Fancy Footwork and Confirmation Bias

Yesterday I wrote about sources that simply dropped an indicator when it no longer fit the pre-conceived thesis. Sometimes it is even more blatant dramatic. Some sources simply engage in fancy footwork, reversing their rationale, confident that their uncritical followers will not notice or care. TODAY I always read MarketWatch. In the midst of many […]

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Missing Indicators and Confirmation Bias

Objectivity! One of the most important questions for consumers of punditry is whether the source is intellectually honest about methods and interpretation. The test is a simple one: If an indicator is cited as support for a market position, take note. If the observer decides to change indicators, there should be a logical explanation – […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Does weakness in housing threaten the economy and stocks?

Housing data have clearly hit a soft patch. How much of the deceleration is important? How much can be attributed to weather? Most importantly: Does weakness in housing threaten the economic recovery? What does it mean for stocks? [note to readers. I always try for weekend publication, but sometimes I cannot work then. The links […]

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