It is time for a return to normalcy! I expect much less Washington politics and much more focus on corporate earnings. While economic data reports are still delayed and distorted, we will gradually get back to analysis of economic fundamentals as well. Last week's theme emphasized the end of the apparent Washington stalemate – no […]
The verdict from traders and the punditry is in: The bungling Washington politicians have merely “kicked the can” and we must all revisit the same problems in 90 days. The prevailing sentiment is extremely negative. The Yahoo Finance polls are not a scientific sample, but they are a reflection of attentive investors. In asking how […]
In chess, a stalemate is a drawn game. Chess players study endgames, where small advantages become big wins. Computers have now solved these endgames – all of them! Some require dozens of precise moves. A mistake converts a draw into a win or a loss. Humans make mistakes. Political processes are inherently human. It is […]
The most important issue facing the US markets and economy is the pending government shutdown. If this expands into a debt default, the implications reach worldwide. As I accurately forecast last week: "Despite a busy economic calendar this week will focus on Washington and the inability to compromise on important decisions. There are two key […]
The weeks of uncertainty continue, as we ask whether political gridlock threatens the economy and the markets. Last week I predicted a week of focus on the Fed, including more clarity on the change in leadership and a new direction for policy. It was a pretty easy call (for a change) and those stories dominated […]