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recession odds

May 4, 2019May 4, 2019  by oldprof

Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Fear A Market Top?

The calendar is modest, with the big reports all hitting last week. Investors will never have more current information on the economy, the Fed, corporate earnings, and various risks than they do right now. It is difficult to guess what the punditry will do when given an open slate. We should be asking: Should we […]

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February 16, 2019February 16, 2019  by oldprof

Weighing the Week Ahead: Is there a New Message from the Markets?

We have a light economic calendar and a short week. We’ll get earnings reports from another 10% of S&P 500 companies. With plenty of time and little fresh information, I expect plenty of pure speculation about the state of the market. This commentary will have a broad theme, with pundits asking: Is there a new […]

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September 9, 2013August 11, 2014  by oldprof

Economic Bloggers See Modest Growth, Modest Risk

We welcome the return of the Survey of Leading Economic Bloggers. Tim Kane spearheaded the survey during his Kauffman Foundation tenure. Tim has moved to the Hudson Institute, where he has busily been writing books [with important policy implications according to this NYT review – the OldProf has this on the reading list, but is […]

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