(August 10, 2014) In the past week there has been a dramatic change for the worse in everything we have been tracking in our “Ugly” section. Risks that are generally described with the euphemism of “geopolitical” have become expanded military actions – Ukraine, Gaza, and Iraq. With no sign of an early resolution, the crises […]
To the surprise of many observers, stocks have survived a series of recent challenges. As Q214 earnings reports starts begin, the questions has changed: Can strong corporate earnings spark a renewed rally in stocks? Prior Theme Recap Two weeks ago I expected that speculation about a market correction would dominate the time before earnings season […]
After an event-filled 3 ½ day trading week, it is time to pause and reconsider. There is little fresh news in store this week, and therefore plenty of time for calendar-driven introspection. Is it time for a mid-course correction? I expect the punditry to assemble the evidence, with each concluding that (s)he has been right […]
(6/28/14) With the stunning decline in Q1 GDP, the health of the US economy has once again taken center stage. The week ahead is shortened by a Friday holiday, but is packed with important data releases. It will all be over Thursday morning, when many will quit early and head for the beach. In a […]
6/21/14 Once again, the market focus has turned to the Fed. For many months the official Fed policy has included an inflation target, an annual rate of 2%. For many months I have written that inflation will not matter until this level is in play. Suddenly, after a single month of data approaching this range, […]