We have a light economic calendar and a holiday-shortened week. The NFIB small business report is interesting, as is the continuing information on jobless claims. There will be plenty of political news of course, but market attention will be focused on this novel idea that markets can move downward. Maybe even a lot in a […]
We have a big week for economic data with the emphasis on employment. With reports on jobless claims, ADP employment, and the official employment situation report all hitting right before Labor Day, we can be sure it will be a big topic. Throw in the election campaigning and we can expect jobs to be the […]
As I wrote in my Non-farm Payroll preview, the most important result to watch is the response rate. If the response rate is below the normal level, it might imply a higher level of business deaths. If this is true, the standard BLS methodology results in a significant overestimate of payroll jobs. And that is […]
There is something wrong with the monthly Payroll Employment Report. Economists were very surprised by the massive jump in jobs reported in May. They quickly changed their viewpoints about the economy as did important policymakers. The reasons are simple: Employment is the most important economic indicator – the foundation for income, spending, and government revenue. […]
It is a big week for economic data. There are many reports with the most attention on Friday’s Employment Situation data. We will also get auto sales, the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, construction spending, and factory orders. Weekly jobless claims continue to attract great interest and should. The corporate earnings story hits a peak […]