Recent economic data, especially since mid-March, has taken a turn for the worse. Initial jobless claims have shown fluctuations that defied seasonal adjustment processes. Just as I (accurately) suggested last month, it is a time for caution. I will elaborate on my reasoning in the conclusion, but let us first review the expectations for Friday’s […]
Once again the monthly payroll report has a special significance. I am cautious for several reasons: The market rally is generally perceived as extended – many are looking for a reason to sell; The recent economic data has shown signs of weakness, possibly affecting consumption and business formation; There is a ceiling on strength, due […]
For many years I have written a regular monthly preview of the Employment Situation Report. I have done extensive research on all of the methods and even visited the stat guys at the BLS to discuss their approach. My preview gives appropriate respect to the BLS, but also to the leading alternative methods. My best […]