Summer of ’09 — A Crucial Time for the Investor

Investors face some important decisions.  For those approaching retirement it is a crucial time.

There is plenty of advice.  The television commercials, blogs, and email messages include a variety of appeals:

  • Those telling you to buy an annuity to lock in your income, marketing to the fear of market losses, and perhaps playing down the death by a thousand cuts from inflation.
  • Those telling you that you can do better than your financial advisor.  Go on your own!  You have a "feel" for the market.
  • Those advising gold.  Everything is about to go wrong, so you need to have hard assets.
  • Those offering speculative gains.  Here are some stock ideas that are "home-run" ideas, where you can triple your money in a couple of months.  Often these are penny stocks.

Any of these strategies could be right — as a part of an overall plan.  For those with adequate resources for retirement, a defensive posture might be correct.  Some investors might be willing to learn what they need to know and execute with discipline.  Inflation protection will play a role at some point.  Some speculative ideas will work, but most will not.

It is a minefield.  You need a plan.  Here is a nice article asking a key question about when you should plan to retire.

You also need to know how to interpret data and modify the plan as the evidence changes.  Many of the sources of information are selling something — annuities, brokerage services, gold, or complex structured products that play upon investor fear.  In a typically excellent article, David Merkel writes as follows:

I have three bits of advice for readers.  First, don’t buy any
financial instruments tht you don’t understand well. This especially
applies when the party selling them to you has options that they can
exercise against you.  Wall Street excels at products that give with
the right hand and take with the left, so beware structured products
sold to retail investors.

Read the entire article for some additional helpful advice.

Our Approach

Every investor has a different problem and requires a specific plan.  All face the same challenge, but individual needs, goals, and risk tolerance vary widely.

We must interpret a recession that does not fit the prior molds very well.  The causes were complex with many interactions.  The attempted solutions are also complex.  It is not a cookie cutter where we can say it will all play out like some prior year.

Many make predictions with great confidence, often drawing more from their political opinions than economic evidence.

At "A Dash" we are seeking objective economic indicators with proven value.  No one knows how it will all play out, so it is a week-by-week process.  The answer will come from a combination of interpreting economic data in a dispassionate manner and recognizing the effect of public policy initiatives.

The Investor Challenge

Any investor navigating the minefield must do three things, all major themes at "A Dash":

  1. Overcome the psychological pull identified in the behavior finance literature.  These are the reasons that most investors significantly lag market averages.
  2. Monitor economic data in an objective fashion, getting past both the "green shoots" crowd and those who always find the worst take on any information.
  3. Put politics aside, figuring out how to make investment returns no matter which party is in power.

In an effort to help investors with these points we suggested a little quiz.  Apparently we did not present the problem effectively, since our fine editors at Seeking Alpha did not see the significance of the questions.  We know from our classroom days that everyone hates quizzes, especially when they do not know the answers!

Perhaps we should have stated it more strongly.  Anyone who cannot do well on the quiz, and we strongly believe most would fail, will be out of touch with the economy and the market over the next few months.  They will also make psychological mistakes that will lead to failure.

We were alarmed that our smart neighbors had so many ideas — most of them wrong — and were all acting decisively on their opinions.

Over the next two weeks we will reveal the answers to the questions — each of which was carefully chosen to reflect an important issue.

We could have just written an article about "The Eight Big Mistakes You are about to Make."

Our experience in education tells us that people learn more when they try to answer a question themselves before getting the answer.  It is a tried-and-true technique.  We urge readers to take a look at the quiz and make some private notes of the answers, even if they do not choose to enter the contest.  Official entries for our prize will close on Thursday.

As we explain each answer, the significance of the questions will become clear.

And finally, while our focus is on the individual investor, most of the concepts are equally important for traders.

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One comment

  • VennData June 24, 2009  

    How does one capture the fury of the missed run this Spring?
    The WSJ’s reporting has been so negative lately. For example yesterday’s article states, “Investors are rapidly losing faith in the prospect for a significant rebound in summer U.S. gasoline demand.”
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124567829766437051.html
    …without even mentioning how consumer gasoline usage had just increased in May. OK “significant” but that’s not the reality here.
    If I had to pick a day for the bottom I’d say June 23rd with the plurality of the news articles with such negative, bearish spin. The Journal is going to become a reverse indicator and lose credibility.