Recession Watch: Introduction

"A Dash" is starting a new series called Recession Watch.

Recessions can be caused by many factors, including completely unforeseen shocks to the economy.  It is a good idea to begin by knowing what is "normal."

Here is a good test.  What do you think is the normal probability of a recession, long-term, all factors being equal?  How does the market trade under these circumstances?

We’ll put up the answer soon, but if you do not know, how can you interpret current discussion of the economy?