Payroll Employment for January
The Street is looking for a gain in payroll employment for January of about
150,000. Our own forecasting model, which has a nice
historic fit using a few key variables(check out the charts here), suggests that the gains will be stronger than expected.
A problem in forecasting is that the "real answer" is not the one
that will be reported on Friday. That number is subject to change over
the next two months as more establishments file their reports. It is
also subject to revision when payroll survey results are benchmarked
against state employment records.
Despite the perils in trading based upon this series, it remains a
top market influence. You can try out your own forecasting skill at
our Payroll Employment Game
site. You can learn a lot about the employment report without risking
any money. You might even win our prize for the high score.