We have a big week for economic data with the emphasis on employment. With reports on jobless claims, ADP employment, and the official employment situation report all hitting right before Labor Day, we can be sure it will be a big topic. Throw in the election campaigning and we can expect jobs to be the […]
We have a light economic calendar with a sharp focus on housing data. Earnings season has ended, and Congress is out of town. There is plenty of space for journalists to fill in a quiet, mid-summer week. Perhaps the housing data will fill some of that space. We may be overdue for a closer look, […]
I have separated my long-running Investor section from Weighing the Week Ahead. My hope is to highlight ideas for the long-term investor. In my last investment post I applied the key concepts of the matrix to a range of investment ideas. We have been on target so far with what to avoid, and I expect […]
We have a big economic calendar with reports on inflation, small business optimism, retail sales, consumer confidence, and unemployment claims. I expect the data to continue occupation of the back seat. The election news is easy to write about, and financial media are taking the bait. Anything about the pandemic is newsworthy. Most important will […]
As I wrote in my Non-farm Payroll preview, the most important result to watch is the response rate. If the response rate is below the normal level, it might imply a higher level of business deaths. If this is true, the standard BLS methodology results in a significant overestimate of payroll jobs. And that is […]