A Helpful Analogy

Let’s suppose that I get out my headphones and IPod and take the dog for a walk.  Let’s further suppose that someone has given me a gadget — a pedometer — and at the return from my walk it says that we have traveled exactly one mile — 5280 feet.  If my stride is even […]

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Employment Report Methodology

Today’s market focus was the monthly employment situation report.  The numbers get a lot of publicity, including the popular media.  Most active market participants know that the numbers are adjusted in various ways and that they also get revised.  Even the best-informed observers miss some key points.  If you read this through to the end, […]

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Facts about the Fed: An Inside Look

There is an excellent way to cut through the misleading commentary about the Fed.  You will learn a number of useful facts, and feel less nervous about what Fed Governors say.  Not only that, it is an enjoyable way to spend a couple of hours. Read Laurence Meyers book, A Term at the Fed.  You […]

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Foolish Fed “Facts”

As I write this, Erin Burnett is leading a CNBC discussion about the possible strength of tomorrow’s employment report, especially given the strong forecast released yesterday by ADP.  If it is a strong report, everyone will speculate about the likely implications for the next Fed meeting.  We’ll probably see something like the following discussion of […]

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