If we did not have money at stake, the various predictions about the Fed would be amusing. Every day the parade of the pundits on CNBC includes those who talk about what the Fed should do and what the Fed will do. With a very vew exceptions, most of those offering opinions about what they […]
While Barry Ritholtz’s blog is a big favorite for lots of us, I do not think that David Malpass, Chief Global Eocnomist for Bear Stearns, is going to drop by to comment on the employment numbers. His work in the current cycle has been brilliant — right on target throughout, so let me summarize a […]
My biggest objection to the analysis in today’s Barron’s is the most difficult to prove in a conclusive fashion. I must add it to the score of projects that would make a good Master’s thesis. But anyway, here it is. One of my propositions is that most of my young friends who are "market strategists" […]
Continuing our discussion of the Abelson/Dunne/Henwood analysis — No one trying to argue that the economy is weak wants to talk for very long about the spectacular unemployment rate of 4.6%. Those who think this is a high number have not studied history and did not take the labor econ class where "frictional unemployment" was […]
Alan Abelson discussed yesterday’s employment report, quoting Dunne and Henwood of The Liscio Report in his Barron’s column. The analysis is so misleading that I could have used it as an example in my stat class in the old days. I’ll point out several problems and take a closer look at the actual BLS data. […]