Thinking clearly about the yield curve

Barry is like the farmer who thought the sun would no longer rise after his rooster died. He has observed a correlation and has inferred causation. The yield curve is an indicator of something, not a cause. Ask yourself this question: Would U.S. economic prospects be higher if Asian banks were less willing to buy our bonds?

Read More

This Hedge Fund Strategy Ain’t Overcrowded

Everyone wants to be a contrarian.  Here is an interesting suggestion that a hedge fund can be contrary by selling stocks short.  The evidence here is not very convincing, since even those hedge funds that are not labeled as “short only” maintain substantial short positions and use leverage. But first, take a look at the […]

Read More

Incomes and Spending Healthy, Another Measure of Inflation Decelerates, Leading Indicators Point to Further Strength

Here is a nice summary of current economic data and a thoughtful conclusion: Link: Incomes and Spending Healthy, Another Measure of Inflation Decelerates, Leading Indicators Point to Further Strength. – Personal Income for November rose .3% versus estimates of a .3% increase and a .5% gain in October. – Personal Spending for November rose .3% […]

Read More