Weighing the Week Ahead: Should Investors Change Course Because of the POTUS Diagnosis?

We have a modest economic calendar including the ISM non-manufacturing index, JOLTS, jobless claims data, and the NFIB index. The Fed minutes from September’s meeting will be released. The Vice-Presidential debate is set for Wednesday. None of this will lead the daily news headlines as everyone monitors President Trump’s condition. This is important for many […]

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Nonfarm Payroll Response Rate Warning Continues — 7 Million Jobs Too High?

The most important feature of the Nonfarm Payroll report continues to go unnoticed. We should be watching the response rate in the second revision of the data. That is where failed and shuttered business show up. This is important because the BLS methodology (and they are doing as well as possible with the tools at […]

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