Nouriel Roubini on Squawk Box: A Viewer’s Guide

Nouriel Roubini is scheduled to appear on Squawk Box.  His message, no doubt, will be the coming collapse of the U.S. economy and stock market, comparing it to 1987 and that year’s market crash.

It is almost trivial to find some parallels between any two times in history.  A good classroom exercise would be to ask students for a comparison that showed BOTH similar and contrasting elements.

Since  I am on the road for a few days, I must rely on TIVO to capture this interview for later analysis.  Meanwhile, viewers might ask themselves some questions.

  • Does the expert try to look at both similarities and differences?
  • Does the expert identify the most important variables both for the economy and the stock market?
  • If there are problems — and there always are — what is the basis for predicting an imminent collapse?
  • How long have these conditions existed?  Is this a new phenomenon, unknown to policy makers?
  • Is the problem one that might be addressed by appropriate policy actions, given a reasonable time frame?
  • Do the interviewers challenge with the right questions?
  • Is there another guest offering an alternative viewpoint?
  • How does the expert’s view compare to the consensus of mainstream economists?
  • If it differs, why is it more credible?
  • Under what circumstances might the expert change his views?  Is this a (more or less) permanent verdict on the fate of the U.S. economy, U.S. corporations, and the stock market?
  • Where should an investor go under these circumstances?  When might it be acceptable to buy stocks?

I’ll try to take a look at how these questions were addressed when I return.  Meanwhile, viewers should watch with this list in mind and consider the information quite carefully.

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One comment

  • Barry Ritholtz August 19, 2006  

    Good post — thats a very useful set of guidelines . . .