Mythbuster on the Economy
My son likes to watch the the Discovery Channel TV show, MythBusters. Sometimes I join him to watch the creative testing of various urban legends.
The regular economic updates from David Malpass, Bear Stearn’s Chief Global Economist, have this same quality. He often combines economic theory and insightful examination of data to expose popular "market urban legends." He has written extensively, for example, on topics like the following:
- Why the unemployment rate is a better current economic indicator than payroll employment;
- Why the (negative) personal savings rate is a completely misleading measure; and
- Why the projected effects of a weaker housing market on the consumer are exaggerated.
Malpass has been very accurate for several years, during a time when the economy has not been easy to predict.
For those who do not have regular access to his analysis, you can take a look at his current weekly letter, courtesy of RIch Karlgaard at Digital Rules.