Musings 6-18-07

Some thoughts that may never become a full post.  Nonetheless, they are all worth reader consideration.

Thinking about risk.  VIX and more gives us a list of great books focused on risk.  This is an important starting point for any investor.  The list includes several that we have studied, some on the shelf but not yet read, and some new ideas for our wish list.

Barry Ritholtz hits the main elements of cognitive bias. This is another theme that any investor must understand.  It’s so, so difficult to apply in practice.

David Merkel has a great piece on private equity.  (Any serious investor should take a couple of weekend hours to explore his stock ideas.  He has built a content-rich website in record time.)  Our own piece on private equity has been much delayed, and he hits some of our themes.

The Fly on the Wall sees something coming from Vista and makes some stock picks.  (Full disclosure:  we own MSFT, INTC, and some others in the space.)

David Merkel (again) on how mortgage funds need to adjust.  You have to understand this to interpret moves in the ten-year note, a key market factor.

No correlation between the market and approval ratings, according to Mark Hulbert.  This is going to need some further study.

Journalists are a contrarian indicator on stocks. (Thanks to Paul Kedrosky for citing).  Readers should also check out the long-term record of Ken Fisher at CXO Advisory.

Dr. Brett Steenbarger helps traders and investors alike in the "Trade Like a Scientist Series."  We are citing the final segment, but follow the links to read the first.  Everyone should understand these principles.

Bill Rempel has random disbelief!  This is a story we wish we had written — just the right touch of humor and insight.  Here’s one to add.  Today we read a pundit predicting a recession in 2008-09 based upon housing decline.  Let’s stretch out that time frame……

It is often useful to see how the US is perceived across the pond.  Citywire takes a look at actual US economic strength versus data, and provides a perspective on revisions.