Inconsistent on Oil: heads we win, tails you lose . . .
At "A Dash" we expect to add value for our investors and readers by following a disciplined method. Barry Ritholtz explains his method (and ours) clearly and effectively in this story. Take a look, and then come back for our view.
I have 3 goals with my market analysis, and by extension these commentaries:1) identify objective reality; 2) determine consensus on major issues; 3) discern variant perspective — i.e., where the crowd gets it wrong. Because of this approach, I am …
While Barry’s current market forecast differs from ours, we applaud his approach. His points about people changing positions on core inflation, the impact of oil prices, and how inflation should be measured are all well-taken.
A current example is "imputed rental value" as a measure of home ownership costs. Most were willing to accept this when it gave low inflation readings, but now it is coming into question. Why? Rents are rising. It is now inconvenient for those who see inflation as limited.
The measurement of inflationary impact on housing is very tricky and very important, since it is a major part of the family budget. It is on our writing agenda.
For now, let’s just say that we agree strongly with Barry about consistency in approach and measurement.