Mistaken Inferences about Markets

Continuing with the Eight Traits of the Insightful Investor… The Insightful Investor does not confuse organizational and individual behavior. Here is an example from today’s news – a quiet market day in a pre-holiday period before a Fed decision. Here was the summary: Investors reluctant to make decisive moves a day before hearing whether the […]

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A Deeper Look at Those Skeptical Charts on Forward Earnings Estimates

How useful are the forward earnings estimates of the sell-side analysts? There is a widely-circulated chart that reinforces the popular viewpoint that analyst forecasts are hopelessly optimistic. It comes from a Morgan Stanley research note, first called to my attention by a reader who writes frequent and thoughtful comments, "CautiousInvestor". I knew immediately that there […]

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