Is the Fed Ahead of the Curve?

The overwhelming sentiment of popular market pundits is that the Fed is out of touch and "behind the curve."  (One of our hopes for 2008 is that writers will find some other phrases to describe this tired sentiment). Other Expert Views Fed policy has an effect with a lag.  One way of examining this is […]

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Recession Odds

Market watchers are all interested in the odds of a recession.  You will not get an accurate view from stories making a big splash.  Since an economist is unlikely to be newsworthy by predicting a 10% chance, it is not surprising that Barry Ritholtz’s citations of recession odds predictions ranges from 30% to 70%.  (Roubini […]

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Recession Odds

Market watchers are all interested in the odds of a recession.  You will not get an accurate view from stories making a big splash.  Since an economist is unlikely to be newsworthy by predicting a 10% chance, it is not surprising that Barry Ritholtz’s citations of recession odds predictions ranges from 30% to 70%.  (Roubini […]

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