A Deeper Look at Those Skeptical Charts on Forward Earnings Estimates

How useful are the forward earnings estimates of the sell-side analysts? There is a widely-circulated chart that reinforces the popular viewpoint that analyst forecasts are hopelessly optimistic. It comes from a Morgan Stanley research note, first called to my attention by a reader who writes frequent and thoughtful comments, "CautiousInvestor". I knew immediately that there […]

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Four Costly Ideas

Continuing with the Eight Traits of the Insightful Investor…. The Insightful Investor is open to other viewpoints. Every question can be approached this way. It is a useful investment skill, but it requires discipline. It is so easy to fall in love with your own ideas and positions. It is especially dangerous when you mix […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Can Investors Think Beyond the Bubble Machine?

In the early days of television (starting in 1955), one of the most popular programs was The Lawrence Welk Show. The audience demographic can be inferred from the sponsors, which featured Geritol (which addressed the issue of "tired blood"), Polident (for dentures) and Serutan (spell it backwards). The effervescent dance sound from Welk's orchestra was […]

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