When Good Models Go Bad

What do you do when your trading system goes wrong? Two possibilities: Has the world changed? Do you still have an edge? Or is this a “blip” that is within the expected error tolerance? If you are an experienced researcher, you can employ various statistical tests, determining whether or not the actual results are plausible. […]

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Ignore the Fed Factoid

The insightful investor is skeptical of factoids. And for good reason! If you want to use history as a guide, care is required. I thought this was pretty obvious until my morning watching of CNBC in Davos (it doesn’t seem the same without Maria) showed Andrew Ross Sorkin interviewing Kenneth Rogoff. This seemed interesting, so […]

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