How to Handle a Big Gain

Here is a happy problem: You have a large instant gain from one of your stocks. What should you do? The topic comes from an actual question raised at Scutify.com, where participants exchange ideas and get a wide range of opinions. (I get to play the role of the straight man in a world of […]

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Using Your NCAA Bracket to Help Your Investing

Regular readers know that I love using sports to find investment insights. There are three reasons: Plentiful data – both before the event and afterwards; Specific odds from prediction markets and pundits – even better than we have in stocks; The comparison forces investors to abandon market preconceptions, thinking about questions in a different way. […]

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Fancy Footwork and Confirmation Bias

Yesterday I wrote about sources that simply dropped an indicator when it no longer fit the pre-conceived thesis. Sometimes it is even more blatant dramatic. Some sources simply engage in fancy footwork, reversing their rationale, confident that their uncritical followers will not notice or care. TODAY I always read MarketWatch. In the midst of many […]

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Missing Indicators and Confirmation Bias

Objectivity! One of the most important questions for consumers of punditry is whether the source is intellectually honest about methods and interpretation. The test is a simple one: If an indicator is cited as support for a market position, take note. If the observer decides to change indicators, there should be a logical explanation – […]

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