September Employment Report Preview

For many years I have written a regular monthly preview of the Employment Situation Report.  I have done extensive research on all of the methods and even visited the stat guys at the BLS to discuss their approach. My preview gives appropriate respect to the BLS, but also to the leading alternative methods. Why is […]

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A One Word Solution for the Fiscal Cliff

Moody's warns that the US credit rating could go down a notch (joining the S&P downgrade from last year) if the US fails to take appropriate medium-term action.  They write as follows (via Politico): “If those negotiations lead to specific policies that produce a stabilization and then downward trend in the ratio of federal debt […]

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Stock Prices and the Fundamentals: Don’t be Fooled

As stock prices made new highs this week, a frequent media theme was that this was happening — drum roll!!!! —-   in spite of the fundamentals. If you listened to the accompanying discussion, you eventually learned what was meant by "fundamentals."  For many observers it is some kind of unquantifiable headline risk.  As long as […]

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