Weighing the Week Ahead: Something New from the Fed?

As I wrote in my preview two weeks ago, we needed to expect a period with more noise than signal.  The post-election posturing and the effects of Sandy have left investors with less real data than usual.  In the next few weeks we may finally get some clarity. This week may  provide better policy definition […]

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A Bull Market in Bad Predictions

Why does this happen whenever I try to take a few days off?  The market for dubious predictions has geared up in earnest! While on vacation I was watching the market (but without my customary TIVO), events developed exactly as I predicted.  I warned about signal and noise, the challenge to traders, and the opportunity […]

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Debunking the 100% Recession Chart

Note to readers — It was either this topic or the fiscal cliff.  Since I have explained for many weeks that we will not be doing any cliff diving, I am choosing to take up the recession chart.  So much misleading commentary, and so little time! This chart is making the rounds, confirmation bias for […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Disappoint the Markets?

After weeks of buildup, culminating with Fed Chair Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech, the time for decision has arrived.  While some of the economic data is better, the jobs picture remains poor.  Friday's employment report has raised expectations for some aggressive action.  Are these hopes justified, or will the Fed disappoint the markets? I was very […]

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