Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Job Gains Signal an Economic Rebound?

This week’s economic calendar is loaded with important data, featuring the employment situation report on Friday. The jobs story has been the most encouraging economic theme, with a recent assist from housing. Especially in the context of the negative Q1 GDP report, next week’s theme will be: Will strong employment gains signal a second half […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Interest Rate Spike Threaten Stock Prices?

This week’s economic calendar includes the most important housing data, but the market context will prove irresistible to the pundits. Stocks continue at the top of the trading range, and even broke through for a few minutes. Even more interesting is the bond market. Interest rates decisively broke their trading range and also showed a […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: The Start of an Earnings Recession?

Despite a full slate of economic news and data, I expect earnings season to command special attention in the week ahead. For the first time since the Great Recession it is possible that corporate earnings will contract for two consecutive quarters. With the media penchant for colorful characterizations, I expect this to be a dominant […]

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Business Cycle Forecasting: The First-Rate Results of Robert F. Dieli

This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written.  It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions.  To get the full benefit, I urge readers to spend some time reading the background links and watching the videos. I am going to follow […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Decision Time?

Decision time has arrived! After many months of debate, sparring, and posturing, the deadline has arrived for U.S. policymakers to resolve the various matters that are popularly described as the "fiscal cliff."  This is a handy simplification.  In the finest American tradition it allows everyone to have an opinion whether or not they have any […]

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