Recession Introduction – Follow up

Although many people read the question about the probability of a recession, one year hence ceteris paribus, no one wanted to venture a public guess.  That is fine. The point is that even strong market participants–hedge fund managers and active traders– do not know the normal expectation, even for an economy growing at trend.  Economists […]

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Recession Watch: Introduction

"A Dash" is starting a new series called Recession Watch. Recessions can be caused by many factors, including completely unforeseen shocks to the economy.  It is a good idea to begin by knowing what is "normal." Here is a good test.  What do you think is the normal probability of a recession, long-term, all factors […]

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