Are you confused about stocks? You are not alone.

 Confusion reigns! As part of my work I speak with smart people from differing backgrounds: Individual investors — clients and potential clients; Business leaders — colleagues on corporate boards; Leading economists and journalists — both groups well-represented at the recent Kauffman Conference; Colleagues in the blogging world. There is an interesting pattern.  Most of them […]

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Best Recession Forecaster: Robert F. Dieli

Since last May I have been reviewing the record of those who forecast the business cycle.  I developed a stringent list of requirements, "Jeff's Acid Test," and I frequently invited nominations.  Here were the stated requirements: Openness — with the potential for peer review Small number of input variables.  Most people do not understand that […]

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Want to make money? Take off your ideological blinders!

Suppose that your objective is to find good investments.  You start by looking at the most popular sources, and what do you find? Most of the comments have a strong viewpoint — either political or ideological.  This has an effect on the writers, since stimulating page views drives advertising, measures of popularity (which are confused […]

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Debunking the Myth of the QE II Rally

The single biggest market question is this one: What happens at the end of QE II? I have explained this on several occasions and promised more detail.  After listening to countless talking heads talk about the QE II rally, we need some clarity. Background There are two views of the world: Gains in various markets […]

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You need to have a system….

Quote of the Day Tadas Viskanta, …(Y)ou have to have a system that gets you in and out of the market based upon your own signals and not pay attention to what other people are saying. I could not agree more!  The quotation is from today's screencast at Abnormal Returns, a brief video that I […]

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