Employment Report Disinformation

Each month the market reacts to the employment situation report, consisting of a survey of establishments and a survey of individuals.  There is a lot of information and the methodology is complex.  This creates a great opportunity for "spinning" the data. Why  Spin? Frankly, we do not know the motives of the various sources that […]

Read More

New Market Highs: What’s the Downside?

As the market reaches new highs, investor fear increases.  Much of this relates to a focus on price without regard to what has happened to earnings and the economy since the 2000 era.  How should the investor consider this?  Is the story different for traders? One approach is to consider the downside risk.  This means […]

Read More

John Hussman and the Fed Model

John Hussman has written a piece about market valuation and the Fed model that breaks some new ground.  It is sufficiently different from his past work to deserve some special attention. Background At "A Dash" we believe that thinking about valuation is important.  Some idea of overall market valuation helps both individual investors and traders […]

Read More

Earnings Season Getting Underway

Earnings reports are coming in.  As usual, companies are exceeding analyst forecasts.  This has now been the pattern for several years.  It is not surprising, since the economy has been strong, corporations got lean and mean, and balance sheets have improved. There is absolutely no sign that earnings estimates are inflated.  Companies seem cautious in […]

Read More