Fighting the “Fundamentals”

How should one interpret the market rally? One widely-held viewpoint is that the rally has occurred despite weak fundamentals.  This means the market is over-extended and due for a correction or even a crash.  Those taking this position cite continuing high unemployment, a continuing high rate of foreclosures, threats to commercial real estate, the "spent-up" […]

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The Perils of Data-Fitting

We are delighted to see the Felix Salmon piece (highlighted by Abnormal Returns) reviewing the supposed relationship between Japan in the 90's and the current US market.  Check out the article to see the "great fit." Here at "A Dash" we have frequently exposed such  bogus relationships, even when the loud voices took the other […]

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Fun with Seasonality

There are many data series that vary in a regular seasonal pattern.  That is why all of the best sources do seasonal adjustments. Here at "A Dash" one of our missions is to find methods that help the average investor to beat the "experts."  Sometimes we are surprised at how easy this might be. The […]

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Don’t be Stubborn!

Near the top of investor mistakes is the stubborn adherence to something that has been proven wrong.  The error might be a strategy, an economic viewpoint, a market opinion, or the choice of favorite pundits.  You need to step back and reevaluate when there is important new information. Here are two key examples: The failure […]

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Data and Perceptions

Interpreting data requires special skill and training.  Hardly anyone has developed these skills, but that does not stop them from offering opinions.  Here at "A Dash" we have highlighted some of the most popular errors.  Today provided some examples. This is America!  Let the games begin…. Public Opinion on Stimulus Plan?  Thumbs Down! It is […]

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