Fighting the “Fundamentals”

How should one interpret the market rally? One widely-held viewpoint is that the rally has occurred despite weak fundamentals.  This means the market is over-extended and due for a correction or even a crash.  Those taking this position cite continuing high unemployment, a continuing high rate of foreclosures, threats to commercial real estate, the "spent-up" […]

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Sell in September? Time for Reality!

Anyone paying attention to market news must know that September is the weakest month for stocks.  Mark Hulbert, one of our favorite writers, calls it The Cruelest Month.  He provides a table of returns, summarized as follows: Notice from the table that in all but one of the last 11 decades, September was a below-average […]

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Picking the Right Pundit

High on the list of investor mistakes is chasing performance.  Even though the top market pundits are aware of this fact, they make the same mistake — time after time. Buying what worked last year is the easiest way to pick stocks, sectors, or managers.  It is also the worst.  Despite this, it is the […]

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Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Today marks some important changes both in market fundamentals and in psychology.  On such occasions we interrupt our regular writing agenda for more specific market commentary.  This is an occasion where readers unfamiliar with our recent work should take some time to follow the links. In recent days we have tried to provide some perspective […]

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Starting with the Result: The Blowout of the Week

Stock market methods have different time frames.  If a method trades on an intra-day basis, the trader can get into the "long run" very quickly.  If the trades are weekly, it takes longer. The long run is elusive.  Since prices are more psychology than value, the definition of the long run depends upon changes in […]

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