Opinions and Information

About a month ago I suggested that investors should think about Dow 20K.  While I recommend reading the prior article, the major theme was that the average investor was overwhelmed with negative news, negative media, negative blogs, and a boatload of Dow 5000 predictions.  This article updates the thesis and provides a small quiz, especially […]

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Want to Measure Sentiment? Here is a New Idea

Market observers all want to measure sentiment.  Here is the general point of agreement: When everyone is in the market, there is no one left to buy. and of course we have the opposite — When most are on the sidelines, there is no one left to sell. The general interpretation of sentiment is contrarian.  […]

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Excuses for Sitting Out the Rally: Lack of Trading Volume

This article is about the continuing market rally and why many are sitting it out.  I want to discuss trading volume, but let me first emphasize another costly distraction for the individual investor. In my preview for this week I pointed out that backward-looking valuation models were not helpful last year, nor will they be […]

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Upside Risk

When investors consider risk, it has traditionally meant downside losses.  The idea of profiting from a declining market, while commonplace for professionals, is relatively new to the average investor.  When trying to time the market by exiting or by buying an inverse ETF, the concept of risk has changed. You must now ask:  What is […]

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Fighting the Fed: What Does it Mean?

Investors eventually learn not to "fight the Fed."  The Fed has more power and a lot more money than you do. It is popular in the investment punditry to criticize the Fed, blame the institution and the members for all problems, and claim that nearly anyone could do a better job than the incumbents.  It […]

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