Weighing the Week Ahead: Will Q1 Earnings Disappoint?

Game time!  Earnings season — with special significance. It is always important. Owners of growth stocks can be especially vulnerable to a missed quarter, since an earnings miss affects both the "E" in the P/E ratio and may also lead to a lower multiple. Owners of cyclical stocks Even owners of dividend stocks need enough […]

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Do You Adjust Your Price Targets?

I hate static price targets!  Hate them! Most of the research we read or see on TV is a bureaucratized and sanitized version of analysis.  The firm determines something, and that is the official version for public consumption.  Those who pay no attention to changing conditions add no value for investors. Did you notice that […]

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The Seduction of Market Timing

Here is the dirty secret about market timing: Claims of success are exaggerated — big time! Every investor wants to buy the bottom, and (especially) to sell the tops. This is so deeply craved that investors want to believe it is possible. In the wonderful world of financial news, this defines the opportunity. The best […]

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Big Market Worries: Profit Margins

Often there is a persuasive argument, apparently supported by data, that can be misleading for the long-term investor.  Sometimes this relates simply to facts, but it can also involve analysis.  Such is the case with what you see about profit margins. The basic thesis is that profit margins are mean reverting.  If any company gets […]

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