The Seduction of Market Timing

Here is the dirty secret about market timing: Claims of success are exaggerated — big time! Every investor wants to buy the bottom, and (especially) to sell the tops. This is so deeply craved that investors want to believe it is possible. In the wonderful world of financial news, this defines the opportunity. The best […]

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Big Market Worries: Profit Margins

Often there is a persuasive argument, apparently supported by data, that can be misleading for the long-term investor.  Sometimes this relates simply to facts, but it can also involve analysis.  Such is the case with what you see about profit margins. The basic thesis is that profit margins are mean reverting.  If any company gets […]

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My Bespoke Roundtable Answers

For the last few years I have participated in two different "year ahead" preview articles — one for The Bespoke Investment Group and one for Seeking Alpha.  These are both excellent resources — each valuable because of the specific approach taken. Last week I suggested that readers join me in checking out the ideas of […]

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Nature Abhors a Vacuum — and so do Financial Journalists!

In most aspects of life, gaining information is helpful.  Smart people learn how to learn, and use the skill in everyday life. There is a cruel twist of fate: When it comes to investing, a little knowledge can be a very dangerous thing! If you read the headlines, you are assured of being at least […]

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