Looking Back, Looking Ahead

Today marks some important changes both in market fundamentals and in psychology.  On such occasions we interrupt our regular writing agenda for more specific market commentary.  This is an occasion where readers unfamiliar with our recent work should take some time to follow the links. In recent days we have tried to provide some perspective […]

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Starting with the Result: The Blowout of the Week

Stock market methods have different time frames.  If a method trades on an intra-day basis, the trader can get into the "long run" very quickly.  If the trades are weekly, it takes longer. The long run is elusive.  Since prices are more psychology than value, the definition of the long run depends upon changes in […]

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Another Round of Panic

Trading and investing are quite different things, a matter of time frames. Today’s trading was sparked by the ISM services report, something that has not attracted much attention in recent years.  The Market has focused more on the traditional ISM manufacturing survey, partly because it has a longer history, and a clear link to GDP.  […]

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The Stress Test

As we write this, foreign markets have plunged over the weekend.  Stocks will open lower — much lower — at a frightening level.  Individual investors may well panic.  Some traders will see this as the indicator they have been seeking – a dramatically lower opening that provides a buying signal. We reported our own short-term […]

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Market Response to Recessions

Each day the market gets "new information" about a slowing rate of economic growth.  If the rate of economic growth slows enough, it can and will be interpreted as a recession, when the NBER does a retrospective analysis of the data.  What does this mean for investors? An Interesting Table Let us take a good […]

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