Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Disappoint the Markets?

Get ready for a week of renewed focus on the Fed. No one expects a policy change, but there is plenty of room for disappointment. In the new era of Fed communications there will be plenty to analyze, including the following: The FOMC statement, which can be carefully parsed for small wording changes and evidence […]

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Positioning for 2012: Don’t forget about stocks

For the last three years I have participated in a special interview series at Seeking Alpha. Jonathan Liss comes up with questions that suit both the times and reader interest. Sadly, we didn’t have enough time to go over what I felt were the best investment apps. Hopefully, this is something that I will get […]

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A Unique Review of 2011: The Year that Wasn’t!

The "year in review" market is another crowded trade.  Either you have a special angle, or why bother?  I hope readers enjoy playing along with my idea for the year that wasn't. My approach involves an essential analytical skill.  You need to have a basis for comparison — often called the "counterfactual."  Regular readers know […]

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How to Predict Policy Decisions — Focusing on Europe

One way for investors to gain an edge is through accurate forecasting of policy decisions. The edge is great because the investing community — traders, bloggers, pundits and TV talking heads — emphasize problems and ignore solutions. There are many reasons for this, including the following: Problems are more obvious Problems make a better story […]

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