During 2004 a leading quantitative analyst predicted the the market multiple on the S&P 500 stocks would decline as interest rates increased, reflecting the Fed’s tightening cycle. Yesterday we invited readers to examine the scatter plot presented and form their own conclusions. (Those who did not see the prior post may wish to look at […]
About two years ago the research described here circulated widely. Since it was not in the public domain, our review of the work went only to private clients seeking our opinion. Proprietary research is not peer reviewed. While many buy-side firms have staff capable of interpreting sell-side research, we wonder how many spotted the flaws […]
There is no need to explain why analyzing risk and reward is the key to investing. There are a number of potential risks in the market, but let us try to simplify a bit for this challenge. We shall focus on the economy, recession chances, and the potential for a soft landing (or as we […]
How well can you predict this month’s change in non-farm employment? Your can test your forecasting skill at the Payroll Employment Game site. We have added some new features this month. First, you can play the game using a hypothetical set of data for four important indicators — last month’s Leading Economic Indicators, Consumer Confidence, […]
Who’s driving this bus? At "A Dash" we have noted that many market analysts are currently emphasizing the policy role of the Fed. In particular, they suggest that there is a "myth" about a soft landing (we prefer the Glide Path), supporting this view with a handful of cases stretching back in time to cover […]