Revisiting the List of Worries

James Altucher suggests that the S&P 500 is going to 1500, an increase of over 40%.  He provides seven good reasons.  He notes that stocks are trading at 11 times forward earnings.  Average would be 15 or more, and the current low interest rates suggest an even higher multiple might be appropriate.  I view valuation […]

Read More

Who is Overconfident?

I was struck by a recent article on "overconfidence" and how it hampers investment returns.  It is persuasive and suggests several different interesting themes. A Brief Digression Before turning to this theme, I would like to hit a few highlights. Thanks to Zack Miller, who kindly included me on his Super Bowl team of investment […]

Read More

Sell in September? Time for Reality!

Anyone paying attention to market news must know that September is the weakest month for stocks.  Mark Hulbert, one of our favorite writers, calls it The Cruelest Month.  He provides a table of returns, summarized as follows: Notice from the table that in all but one of the last 11 decades, September was a below-average […]

Read More

How to Profit from the Obama Stocks

Understanding public policy decisions is crucial to investment success. It’s how you manage to find the best investment ideas that will work for you, and how you can understand the ebb and flow of the otherwise near unreadable markets. There are so many warning signs you can find from understanding these decisions. It’s almost impossible […]

Read More