The Seduction of Market Timing

Here is the dirty secret about market timing: Claims of success are exaggerated — big time! Every investor wants to buy the bottom, and (especially) to sell the tops. This is so deeply craved that investors want to believe it is possible. In the wonderful world of financial news, this defines the opportunity. The best […]

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A Weighing the Week Ahead: Seeking Safety?

If you are looking for safety, you are not alone.  Many people who lost money in stocks and real estate have become more risk averse.  The problem? They are looking for safety in all the wrong places! Owners of (formerly AAA-rated) US debt experienced this last week.  If you own a ten-year Treasury note, you […]

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Evaluating Recession Forecasts: What Every Investor Must Know

For investors who believe that stocks eventually reflect the fundamental strength of the companies, understanding the business cycle is crucial.  Since popular sentiment and stock prices are often excessively negative about economic prospects, there is great opportunity for those who can get this right. Regular readers know that I have been conducting research on this […]

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My Bespoke Roundtable Answers

For the last few years I have participated in two different "year ahead" preview articles — one for The Bespoke Investment Group and one for Seeking Alpha.  These are both excellent resources — each valuable because of the specific approach taken. Last week I suggested that readers join me in checking out the ideas of […]

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Bespoke Investment Group and Forecasting Follies

'Tis the season for making forecasts — all because of the calendar.  It is an opportunity to look foolish, or to gain edge.  This article will illustrate both.  Here are the ways to go wrong: Opine about subjects where you have no edge Pick a time frame unsuited to your methods Fail to admit the […]

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