The Dunning-Kruger Effect: Can We Profit?

During my mini-vacation i got some interesting email from two intellectual friends, both related to the Dunning-Kruger effect.  Neither friend seemed to be aware that this has been a basic theme of my blog for nearly five years, but both knew that I would be interested. Even when on vacation, I always read Abnormal Returns.  […]

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A Dream

Life is better when you have pleasant dreams.  You are one weird dude when you dream about the employment situation report! So imagine this improbable scenario — that someone in MSM (maybe even a real star like Steve Liesman) wants a different perspective….. You only have a few minutes in this interview, Jeff, so take […]

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Predicting Government Actions — How You Can Profit

As one of the very few political science/public policy experts analyzing investments, I try to take note of situations reflecting concepts from these fields.  As regular readers know, it is not a matter of being smarter than everyone else.  Far from it.  I search constantly for information, even from unlikely sources.  A principle here at […]

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