A Consumer Guide to Investment Forecasting

If you are an investor, you cannot escape forecasting. Those who criticize predictions are guilty of an obvious blunder.  If you are making investment decisions, your conclusions — and the hidden assumptions and reasoning — depend on forecasts. So don't kid yourself.  You are a consumer of forecasts made by others.  These predictions influence your […]

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Debunking the Myth of the QE II Rally

The single biggest market question is this one: What happens at the end of QE II? I have explained this on several occasions and promised more detail.  After listening to countless talking heads talk about the QE II rally, we need some clarity. Background There are two views of the world: Gains in various markets […]

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Important Investment Story, Missed by Nearly Everyone

Attention investors! Most market studies are either misleading or completely false. The research you see on the Internet or on financial TV is done with a purpose in mind. It is not reviewed by anyone, and it involves many methodological flaws. Often the point is to sell fear, gold, or structured products with high commissions. […]

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