My Bespoke Roundtable Answers

For the last few years I have participated in two different "year ahead" preview articles — one for The Bespoke Investment Group and one for Seeking Alpha.  These are both excellent resources — each valuable because of the specific approach taken. Last week I suggested that readers join me in checking out the ideas of […]

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Bespoke Investment Group and Forecasting Follies

'Tis the season for making forecasts — all because of the calendar.  It is an opportunity to look foolish, or to gain edge.  This article will illustrate both.  Here are the ways to go wrong: Opine about subjects where you have no edge Pick a time frame unsuited to your methods Fail to admit the […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Respite from European Concerns?

In the absence of fresh bad news from Europe, stocks managed some solid gains last week.  Our trading model, Felix, reflected greater confidence than most traders and investors (including me). As noted last week I plan to focus on year-end matters, as well as enjoying time with family and friends.  This is a somewhat abbreviated […]

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How to Predict Policy Decisions — Focusing on Europe

One way for investors to gain an edge is through accurate forecasting of policy decisions. The edge is great because the investing community — traders, bloggers, pundits and TV talking heads — emphasize problems and ignore solutions. There are many reasons for this, including the following: Problems are more obvious Problems make a better story […]

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