Business Cycle Forecasting: The First-Rate Results of Robert F. Dieli

This article is probably the most exhaustive and challenging piece I have written.  It was worth the effort because understanding the business cycle is crucial to making great investment decisions.  To get the full benefit, I urge readers to spend some time reading the background links and watching the videos. I am going to follow […]

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A Bull Market in Bad Predictions

Why does this happen whenever I try to take a few days off?  The market for dubious predictions has geared up in earnest! While on vacation I was watching the market (but without my customary TIVO), events developed exactly as I predicted.  I warned about signal and noise, the challenge to traders, and the opportunity […]

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September Employment Report Preview

For many years I have written a regular monthly preview of the Employment Situation Report.  I have done extensive research on all of the methods and even visited the stat guys at the BLS to discuss their approach. My preview gives appropriate respect to the BLS, but also to the leading alternative methods. Why is […]

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Romney? 100% Chance of Recession!

In the entire history of official recession dating (beginning in the 1850's) there is a startling fact: Every newly-elected Republican President has brought a first-term recession.  All of them.  "Always and only" as we hear from a popular data-mining pundit. You can check out the list of GOP Presidents here.  And the official recession dating […]

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