Try This Test

In a prior post we described the wonderful class test used by Thomas Gilovich where he asks some students to simulate coin flips while another group records results of actual flips.  He can always spot the fakes because the students do not realize what random data looks like. Readers of "A Dash" are more astute. […]

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SAY WHAT, Abby Joseph Cohen?

Muckdog at The Learning Curve got out of his sick bed to do some fact checking after a CNBC interview.  Take a look at what he found, and then I’ll answer the question he poses. Link: SAY WHAT, Abby Joseph Cohen?. CNBC’s Erin Burnett interviewed Abby Joseph Cohen this morning.  Erin introduced Abby as "perennially […]

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Thoughts on the Fed

The Fed has acted, taking a course that was widely, but not universally, expected by market participants.  It was demonstrably not universal, since Fed Funds futures still showed a tightening chance of about 25% before the announcement. Despite this obvious fact, market pundits and journalists, who must try to look smart by explaining market action […]

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