Mythbuster on the Economy

My son likes to watch the the Discovery Channel TV show, MythBusters.  Sometimes I join him to watch the creative testing of various urban legends. The regular economic updates from David Malpass, Bear Stearn’s Chief Global Economist, have this same quality.  He often combines economic theory and insightful examination of data to expose popular "market […]

Read More

Payroll Employment for January

The Street is looking for a gain in payroll employment for January of about 150,000.  Our own forecasting model, which has a nice historic fit using a few key variables(check out the charts here), suggests that the gains will be stronger than expected. A problem in forecasting is that the "real answer" is not the […]

Read More

Food and Fuel

There was more commentary today on the fuel versus food trade off, a subject we considered last week. Ed Stavetski, reporting on earnings conference calls for Street Insight, commented that Tyson had highlighted the effect of ethanol on feed costs.  He also covered the Phelps Dodge call, noting that company’s expectation of continued strength in […]

Read More

Dr. Copper’s PhD — Checking the Accreditation

The widely-followed MarketWatch published a story that will, no doubt, scare the daylights out of individual investors who subscribe to their service.  This is the key conclusion: NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — A sell-off in commodities — from copper to crude oil — over the past few sessions is telling some veteran market watchers that a […]

Read More

December Jobs Forecast

The Street is looking for a gain in payroll employment of about 115,000 in December.  The ADP data from this week has some thinking the report will be weak.  Our own forecasting model, which has a nice historic fit using a few key variables(check out the charts here), suggests that the gains will be stronger […]

Read More