Employment Report Preview

Each month we ask the question, "What change in payroll employment would be consistent with other economic data from the same time period (the middle of the prior month)? This is not a forecast, per se, since we do not posit any causal relationship among these variables.  They are all concomitant indicators of economic activity.  […]

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Politics, Ideology, and Investing

Once again we deviate from our scheduled agenda to consider something of immediate significance. We continue to see a prevailing viewpoint that has a certain pattern: The pundit expected government to be powerless to deal with economic challenges. The pundit is surprised at a massive reaction by the Fed, using many tools that no one […]

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The 2001 Recession is a Bad Example

Our suggestion that there were a few promising economic signs drew a number of comments about the 2001 recession.  Some note that the market continued to decline for many months and another 40% after the "official" end of the recession in November of 2001.  The implication is that the same might or will occur this […]

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Employment Situation Report Preview

Each month we ask the question, "What change in payroll employment would be consistent with other economic data from the same time period (the middle of the prior month)? This is not a forecast, per se, since we do not posit any causal relationship among these variables.  They are all concomitant indicators of economic activity.  […]

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Monitoring the Economy

Nearly all of us are consumers of economic information and data.  We are interested because economic strength leads to corporate profits and higher stock prices.  We need to know! The key issue is pretty simple.  Many question the "second derivative" rally in stocks.  Their point is that economic data are bad, very bad.  Evidence showing […]

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