Weighing the Week Ahead: A Delicate (and Temporary) Balance

Despite plenty of news, there was little market reaction. In a summer week including many vacations, we have a modest economic calendar but plenty of earnings news. I expect the punditry to be asking: What will disrupt the balance of news? Opinions about the balance are quite diverse, as a recap of last week shows. […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Inflation on the Horizon?

The economic calendar is a light one, and many regular participants are on vacation. The most important data include PPI, CPI, and JOLTS, the best read on a tightening labor market. I expect pundits to put these pieces together and wonder: Is inflation finally on the horizon? Last Week Recap In my last edition of […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Is it Time to Worry About 2020?

The economic calendar is loaded with the most important reports. The four trading days are divided by a Wednesday holiday, meaning some extra days off for most. Normally the data would dominate the discussion. But many find the current story — steady growth, improved earnings, and lack of oomph in stocks—a boring one. This week’s […]

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Interpreting the August Employment Report

As I write this on Thursday night, very few people know what the August employment report will show. Only the President, Vice-President, and a few top economists get an advance look on Thursday afternoon. The BLS is in lockdown mode for eight days. Media sources get a look on Friday morning, but are cut off […]

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Stock Exchange: How to Use Backtests Effectively

  Everyone interested in managing their own money ought to keep an old idiom in mind: if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. Unfortunately, greed is a powerful motivator. It’s tempting to see a new model with an incredible backtest and think this could be the answer. Experienced investors know that […]

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