Fiscal Cliff Notes: Interpreting the deadline news

Here is an all-time first:  Market rallies on news that Congress will be in session! That was today's story.  The market gyrations lacked a grounding in reality.  Joe Weisenthal charts the day, with my comments to follow. Here are a number of rhetorical questions: After weeks of public posturing on both sides, would we really […]

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Obama Silences Political Scientists!

Did you hear this news, prominently featured on talk radio? The American Political Science Association Annual Meeting. … It's a chance to introduce highlight criticism of policies to a lot of people. And I noticed that the hurricane center's track is — and I'm not alleging conspiracies here. The hurricane center is the regime; the […]

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Romney? 100% Chance of Recession!

In the entire history of official recession dating (beginning in the 1850's) there is a startling fact: Every newly-elected Republican President has brought a first-term recession.  All of them.  "Always and only" as we hear from a popular data-mining pundit. You can check out the list of GOP Presidents here.  And the official recession dating […]

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June Employment Report Preview

We rely too much on the monthly employment outlook report.  It is a natural mistake.  We all want to know whether the economy is improving and, if so, by how much. Employment is the key metric since it is fundamental for consumption, corporate profits, tax revenues, deficit reduction, and financial markets. Since the subject is […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: A Search for Leadership

I cannot do justice to the concept of leadership in one article, but let us hit the highlights. Leadership is what most market commentators want when they complain about “politicians.”  They want leaders of democracies to ignore the demands of constituents and do what is right.  Unfortunately, the punditry has widely varying views on the […]

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