A One Word Solution for the Fiscal Cliff

Moody's warns that the US credit rating could go down a notch (joining the S&P downgrade from last year) if the US fails to take appropriate medium-term action.  They write as follows (via Politico): “If those negotiations lead to specific policies that produce a stabilization and then downward trend in the ratio of federal debt […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: Will the Fed Disappoint the Markets?

After weeks of buildup, culminating with Fed Chair Bernanke's Jackson Hole speech, the time for decision has arrived.  While some of the economic data is better, the jobs picture remains poor.  Friday's employment report has raised expectations for some aggressive action.  Are these hopes justified, or will the Fed disappoint the markets? I was very […]

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Weighing the Week Ahead: What to do about Jobs?

From start to finish, the coming week will have a heightened focus on employment.  Labor Day weekend in a presidential election year provides the obvious backdrop.  Stubbornly high unemployment and sluggish economic growth underscore the issue of greatest concern. This popular chart from Calculated Risk shows the nature of this recovery, described in terms of […]

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Obama Silences Political Scientists!

Did you hear this news, prominently featured on talk radio? The American Political Science Association Annual Meeting. … It's a chance to introduce highlight criticism of policies to a lot of people. And I noticed that the hurricane center's track is — and I'm not alleging conspiracies here. The hurricane center is the regime; the […]

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