Decision time has arrived! After many months of debate, sparring, and posturing, the deadline has arrived for U.S. policymakers to resolve the various matters that are popularly described as the "fiscal cliff." This is a handy simplification. In the finest American tradition it allows everyone to have an opinion whether or not they have any […]
Tonight's House vote on "Plan B" was not surprising nor was it very important to the final outcome of the fiscal cliff debate. As usual, I recommend a strict investor focus. What would constitute a market-friendly outcome? Investors who do not have an intense partisan stake want to see the following: Avoiding the economic consequences […]
After several weeks of noise — from both data and politicians — it may finally be time for some clarity. I have predicted this with my theme for the last few weeks, and we are starting to see the results: The Fed — aggressive policy, clearly stated, but still not well understood (more below). US […]
For many years I have written a regular monthly preview of the Employment Situation Report. I have done extensive research on all of the methods and even visited the stat guys at the BLS to discuss their approach. My preview gives appropriate respect to the BLS, but also to the leading alternative methods. Why is […]
The analysis of current Fed policy has included the usual parade of mistaken pundits. There is a legitimate debate about QE3, but it has been obscured by those with an agenda based upon their politics or their business models. The result is an exceptional opportunity for the long-term investor. Mistakes Here are the four biggest […]